Atlanta debate: Stakes, expectations and tension are all high

ATLANTA, Ga. - President Joe Biden and the man who wants to retake the Oval Office from him have different, yet very specific goals they want to accomplish during their historic first debate Thursday night at CNN in Atlanta.

“The Donald Trump campaign wants to shine a spotlight on someone they say is an enfeebled president, one who’s weak and can’t handle the job,” said Dr. Ben Taylor, professor of political science at Kennesaw State University. “And they want to show that Trump is up to the job. The issue is whether Trump is capable of staying on message and bringing home that message.”

Trump is attempting to become the first ex-American president since Grover Cleveland in the 19th century to reclaim the Oval Office; the first ex-American president to reclaim the Oval Office after being impeached not once, but twice; and the first ex-American president to reclaim the Oval Office as a convicted felon.

Standing in his way is Biden, already the oldest sitting president in history to seek reelection.

“Biden’s campaign wants to show him as vigorous and stable and strong and sharp and ready to go,” Taylor said. “They’ll also want to remind people of what some saw as the circus-like atmosphere of Trump’s istration, and betting on moderate to independent voters who may not want to return to that.

“They also want to show Trump as a candidate who flies off the handle and try to get a rise out of him.”

What are the key issues?

• ABORTION: For Trump, no issue looms larger than abortion. His Supreme Court appointments while president enabled the court to overturn Roe vs. Wade, which triggered an avalanche of abortion restrictions across the nation. Trump has repeatedly said he was proud of his role in overturning Roe. And Biden will be eager to highlight Trump’s role. Trump, of course, has said he would not a national abortion ban if reelected. But given his track record on Roe, he may have more work to do if he hopes to convince women he can be trusted on a key health care issue.
• IMMIGRATION: Biden’s greatest political liability, meanwhile, may be immigration. The Democrat’s istration has struggled to limit the number of immigrants entering the country at the U.S.-Mexico border. His allies privately acknowledge the issue is a major political liability heading into the fall. Trump loves nothing more than highlighting illegal immigration, so expect him to pound Biden on the issue.
• WAR IN GAZA: At the same time, Biden will face tough questions about his leadership in the war between Israel and Hamas. The president has alienated some would-be ers on both sides given his staunch — and occasional criticism — of Israel. He’ll have a major opportunity to defend his record on the complicated issue Thursday night. It won’t be easy.
• ECONOMY: In an April poll by The Associated Press and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, more Democrats said Biden had hurt than helped on the cost of living and immigration. The Biden campaign has been trying to salve that pain. Republicans, meanwhile, aim to turn the election into a referendum on Biden’s handling of the economy. “My pitch is, are you happy with $4 a gallon gas and $6 for a jar of mayonnaise? If you’re not, it was not like that when Trump was in office,” said Suzanne Brown, a Peachtree City Council member who has canvassed for Republicans this spring.

Battleground: Georgia

Georgia is the election battleground that yielded the closest margin of any state in the 2020 election between Biden and Trump.

It became the epicenter of Trump’s efforts to overturn Biden’s election, though no evidence that significant election fraud occurred or that the result was in doubt has emerged. Georgia will test which man can best assemble a winning coalition despite their respective weaknesses.

Comments aimed at women, suburban voters, Black and Hispanic voters and young voters could provide fodder for follow-up reporting.

Who’ll be watching?

Most U.S. adults plan to watch some element of Thursday’s presidential debate and many think the event will be important for the campaigns of both Biden and Trump, according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

About 6 in 10 U.S. adults say they are “extremely” or “very” likely to watch the debate live or in clips, or read about or listen to commentary about the performance of the candidates in the news or social media.

Biden and Trump are each entering the debate with low favorability ratings. About 6 in 10 U.S. adults say they have a very or somewhat unfavorable view of Biden, and a similar number have a negative view of Trump.

Most Americans, 56%, say they are “very” or “somewhat” dissatisfied with Biden being the Democratic Party’s likely nominee for president, and a similar majority are dissatisfied with Trump as the likely GOP nominee. The poll indicates that Republicans continue to be more satisfied with a re-nomination of Trump than Democrats are with an anticipated Biden re-nomination. Six in 10 Republicans are satisfied with Trump as a nominee; just 42% of Democrats say that about Biden.

About 3 in 10 U.S. adults are dissatisfied with both Trump and Biden as their party’s likely nominees – with independents and Democrats being more likely than Republicans to be dissatisfied with both.

Republicans and Democrats are more likely to have a negative view of the opposing party’s candidate than they are to have a positive view of their own.

About 9 in 10 Republicans have an unfavorable view of Biden, and about 9 in 10 Democrats have a negative view of Trump. By comparison, roughly 7 in 10 Democrats have a favorable view of Biden, and about 7 in 10 Republicans have a positive view of Trump.

About 4 in 10 U.S. adults approve of how Biden is handling his job as president, in line with where that number has stood for the past two years. Biden’s approval rating among U.S. adults on handling the economy is similar, as is his handling of abortion policy. Only 3 in 10 approve of his approach to immigration.

What’s different this time?

Trump and Biden will clash in the earliest televised presidential debate in U.S. political history. Thursday night is also the first-ever televised debate between a sitting president and his predecessor; the first-ever presidential debate in which one of the candidates is a convicted felon; the first-ever presidential debate in which one of the candidates’ immediate family is a convicted felon; and the first general election presidential debate held in Atlanta (in 2020, Tyler Perry Studios in Atlanta hosted a Democratic presidential primary debate among several hopefuls, including Biden and his eventual running mate, Kamala Harris).

Biden and Trump have also agreed to an entirely new debate format outlined by CNN. The rules were seemingly designed to prevent a repeat of their 2020 debacle, in which they interrupted and heckled each other relentlessly and ignored Fox News Chris Wallace’s pleas for decorum.

First, the debate will feature two commercial breaks during the 90-minute broadcast; previous televised debates have not allowed TV ads.

Neither men are allowed opening statements. The candidates will stand at identical lecterns; both will make a two-minute closing statement, and via a coin toss, Trump has been awarded the final argument.

The debate will begin with a question, with Trump and Biden having two minutes to respond. This will be followed by one-minute rebuttals and responses to the rebuttals. Their microphones will be muted except when their turn to speak comes around. Both candidates will be provided with a pen, notepad, and bottle of water on stage; no pre-written notes are allowed.

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